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Medical Decisions are Complicated

In an opti­mistic op-​​​​ed piece in the May 1 Wall Street Journal, “Will Med­icine Ever Make Up Its Mind?” Thomas Goetz, an editor at Wired and author of The Decision Tree, con­siders the evo­lution of medical knowledge that might or should inform health care decisions.

It seems like there’s an endless series of con­tra­dictory health findings, he writes:

“But here’s the thing: As frus­trating as these shifts can be in iso­lation, taken together they reflect an effective system. Every revision and new rec­om­men­dation is an attempt to put forward the best available information.

Medical science will always be a moving target, and it will always be an unfin­ished process…We look to science to get as close to that truth as pos­sible. This is why med­icine will always be rooted in risks and probabilities…

Not to worry, he sug­gests. While sta­tistics can make us uncom­fortable, some researchers at Dart­mouth have demonstrated

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