Breast Cancer Rate in the U.S. is No Longer Declining

By |February 28th, 2011

A worrisome report on breast cancer trends in the U.S. appeared on-line today, ahead of print in an AACR journal, Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention.

The analysis, based on the NCI’s SEER data from 2000 – 2007, shows that the incidence of breast cancer in the U.S. is no longer declining. (A drop after 2002 in BC incidence is generally attributed to an abrupt reduction in HRT around that time.)

Since 2003 the overall BC rate has been steady overall, with a few exceptions:

The incidence of BC in non-Hispanic white women ages 60-69 rose by 4.8% in this period. “It remains to be seen if this trend will continue,” according to the study authors.

Among white women ages 40-49 rates of estrogen receptor (ER) positive (ER+) breast cancer significantly increased by an average of 2.7% per year during this period. In contrast, the rate of ER- breast tumors decreased, overall, although the trends were statistically significant only for women ages 40-49 and 60-69.

Apart from women younger than 40, overall BC rates and ER+ case rates were highest among non-Hispanic white women, followed by non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women. Among black women ages 40-49, the incidence of ER+ BC increased (5.2% per year) during 2003-2007, and there were non-significant, recent increases in ER+ BC among older black women.

Of note, in contrast to the pattern for ER+ breast cancer, non-Hispanic black women have the highest rates of ER- breast cancer in every age group. (These ER- cases would include triple negative BC.)

Sorry for the jargon, readers – I hadn’t planned to post now. But I think this information warrants attention.

This matters for a number of reasons. First, it’s bad news in terms of women’s health, plain and simple. Second, these numbers relate to the mammography math, which has been on my mind lately. The point is that if more women between the ages of 40 and 49 are developing ER+ (read: most treatable) tumors, this would influence the net benefit of cancer screening in that age group.

And please don’t misread me here: This is not an academic argument I want to win. Rather, I wish the incidence of breast cancer were declining. And I wish, even more, that so many middle-aged women I know personally weren’t affected by this devastating illness.

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New Numbers Should Factor Into the Mammography Equation

By |February 21st, 2011

On Friday the New York Times reported that surgeons are performing far too many open breast biopsies to evaluate abnormal mammogram results. A new American Journal of Surgery article analyzed data for 172,342 outpatient breast biopsies in the state of Florida. The main finding is that between 2003 and 2008, surgeons performed open biopsies in an operating room – as opposed to less invasive, safer biopsies with needles – in 30 percent of women with abnormal breast images.

I was truly surprised by this should-be outdated statistic, which further tips the mammography math equation in favor or screening. These numbers matter, and should be based in modern medical practice.

When the Annals of Internal Medicine published the since-adjusted recommendations for breast cancer screening by mammography in November 2009, the stated considerations were not about dollars and cents – which were incalculable – but about the number of women needed to be screened to save one life, and the incidence of false positives which cause harm – worrying, needless biopsies, complications of procedures, overtreatment, etc.

In the context of the health care reform discussion, and considering our country’s out-of-the-sky-and-rising medical bills, some (hopefully) well-intentioned economists heard about those trumped-up mammography papers and concluded that we shouldn’t screen women under 50 for breast cancer because it’s harmful and, what’s more, we can’t keep paying for this sort of care because it’s not evidence-based.

Those conclusions were flawed, though, because the data in those papers were old, as I’ve written previously, and didn’t include studies of digital mammography – which is better for detecting cancer in younger women who tend to have denser breast tissue. In December 2009, I noted that it was unreasonable to consider the costs of open needle biopsies in O.R.’s in any calculation of the harms of mammography, as had the Annals authors, because those kinds of procedures are outdated, or so I thought they were.

It turns out I’ve been living, still, in an academic medical enclave. According to the Timescoverage by Denise Grady:

The reason for the overuse of open biopsies is not known. Researchers say the problem may occur because not all doctors keep up with medical advances and guidelines. But they also say that some surgeons keep doing open biopsies because needle biopsies are usually performed by radiologists. The surgeon would have to refer the patient to a radiologist, and lose the biopsy fee…

The Times article suggests this pattern of over-doing open-biopsies, as documented in Florida, likely reflects national tendencies, including variation among different types of practices – academic, hospital-based, etc.

According to the article published in the American Journal of Surgery, the costs of a core needle biopsy using imaging guidance is around $5,000, or – if a vacuum biopsy device is used, around $6,000; the costs of an open procedure in the O.R. run in the range of $11,000 or more. The Times article indicates that doctors’ fees for a needle procedure range from $750 to $1500, and for an open, surgical biopsy from $1,500 to $2,500. For a ballpark estimate of the cost difference, say a core needle procedure is $5,500 + $1,000 for the doctor’s fees – that’s ~$6,500; a surgical procedure is $11,000 + $2,000 for the surgeon’s fees – that’s $13,000, an easy double.

So let’s say, for the sake of future calculations on mammography, that 10 percent of breast biopsies really do need to take place in the O.R. (which is a generous over-estimate, I think it should be 5 percent or fewer). But if 10 percent need be in the O.R.: then 20 percent of breast biopsies in the U.S. each year – said in the surgery paper to be 1.6 million per year in the U.S. – are being performed through an unnecessary, costlier technique.

An extra $6,500 x 20 percent of 1.6 million procedures = $2.08 billion additional costs, per year.

Let’s call it an even $2.1 billion, or $2 billion, we should shave off the collective amount we spend on mammography and appropriate follow-up. The last digit doesn’t matter; these are huge numbers. No wonder the Times put this story on the front page.

These results should be factored into any proper calculation of costs in breast cancer screening. Now add (or better, subtract) the implications of the findings of two weeks ago – that full lymph node dissection is usually not necessary in women, even if the sentinel node is found to be positive at the time of definitive surgery for what turns out to be a cancer.

What needs be reassessed by public health specialists and economists who weigh in on these issues – and please help me out here, Task Force members and Dartmouth friends, if you would, because your input affects public thinking and, ultimately, policy – are the legitimate costs of screening (every other year, as opposed to annually), doing needle biopsy procedures (instead of open biopsies) and reducing the costs and long-term complications of surgery by eliminating routine lymph node dissection from the equation.

And then we should assess those numbers relative to the costs of treating a woman with metastatic breast cancer, which still has not yet been determined.

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A Bit More on False Positives, Dec 2009, Part 1

By |December 29th, 2009

The question of false positives in breast cancer screening – why and how these happen, how often these occur, and how much these cost, in physical, psychological and financial terms – remains a puzzle.

A few weeks ago the New York Times Magazine featured a piece on “Mammogram Math” under the heading “The Way We Live Now.” The author, a mathematics professor, argues that the risks and costs of mammography, though incalculable, outweigh the benefits. The paper printed the article along with a subtitle, “Why evidence-based medicine is actually right and scary” and later published three letters including one truncated response by me.

After a hiatus, I’ve rescanned the literature – just to be sure the question hasn’t been resolved in the past few weeks by a much-needed interdisciplinary team of health care policy experts, economists,  statisticians, surgeons, radiologists, oncologists, nurses and for good measure, perhaps a few breast cancer patients and survivors.

There’s little published progress to report, aside from more hype and theoretical numbers such as I offered in a November essay. So I’ve decided to take the analysis a step further by outlining a tentative framework for thinking about false positives in breast cancer screening.

In a separate post, I will outline a proposed outline for categorizing false positives as they relate to mammography. Why bother, you might ask – wouldn’t it be easier to drop the subject?

Make it go away,” sang Sheryl Crow on her radiation sessions.

Instead, I’ll answer as might a physician and board-certified oncologist who happens to be a BC survivor in her 40s:

To determine the damage done to women by screening mammography (as some claim and refer as evidence) we need establish how often false positives lead, in current practice, to additional procedures such as sonograms (fairly often, but the costs are relatively small), MRIs (less standard and more expensive), breast biopsies (scarier, slightly risky and more valued – how else can a pathologist determine if a woman with a breast lesion has cancer and, in the future, what type of therapy is best) or frankly inappropriate treatments such as chemotherapy for a non-cancerous condition (very damaging and the most costly of all putative false positive outcomes).

These numbers matter. They’re essential to the claim that the risks of breast cancer screening outweigh the benefits.

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Getting the Math on Mammograms

By |November 20th, 2009

The latest news’ focus on the breast cancer screening madness is about money.

So let’s do the math:

First, for argument’s sake, let’s say the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force is right – that to save the life of one woman between the ages of 40 and 49, on average, you’d have to screen some 1903 additional women every year or so for a period of 10 years.

This is, admittedly, a huge assumption; the panel analyzed two decades’ worth of data, some unpublished, involving complex models applied to millions of data points (humans) amassed in imperfectly-collected data sets that vary in size, scope and accuracy.

Next, let’s say the cost of a mammogram is $150, around what Medicare pays (yet another assumption, but we need to keep this simple or we’ll never get a sense of what’s really at stake here).

So if 2000 women (I’m rounding up) undergo annual screening for 10 years, the bill would come to $300 thousand per year, for a total cost of $3 million over a decade.  If those same middle-aged women were to get their mammograms biannually (every other year), the cost would be roughly $1.5 million per life saved.

This, the so-called cost of screening mammography for women between the ages of 40 and 49 (let’s call it “X”), is all over the news in various calculations, some that get closer to the right answer than others.

But what’s the cost of caring for one 45 year old woman with metastatic breast cancer?

Let’s call that amount “Y.”

Even the heartless among us would admit that we need to subtract, X-Y, to determine the financial cost of breast cancer screening to save one middle-aged woman’s life.

An insurance executive might say it’s in the range of $400 thousand, or a million dollars, or maybe even two million, if the woman lives long enough to go in and out of the hospital over the course of five years, undergo multiple surgical procedures, have semi-permanent intravenous catheters inserted and removed, suffer infections from those requiring at-home multi-week courses of intravenous antibiotics, all of this besides, of course, receiving chemotherapy, radiation, hormone treatments, incalculably expensive antibody infusions and newer, targeted therapies, followed by hospice (hopefully) or ICU care in the end.

Quick answer: maybe it’s cost-effective, or nearly so, to do screening mammograms on asymptomatic women in their forties.

But consider –  if the expert panel’s numbers are off just a bit, by as little as one or two more lives saved per 1904 women screened, the insurers could make a profit!

By my calculation, if one additional woman at a cost of, say, $1 million, is saved among the screening group, the provider might break even.  And if three women in the group are saved by the procedure, the decision gets easier…

Now, imagine the technology has advanced, ever so slightly, that another four or five women are saved among the screening lot.

How could anyone, even with a profit motive, elect not to screen those 2000 women?

The truest answer, of course, is that the value of any one person’s life is inconceivably huge.  And that doesn’t even enter into the equation.

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