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Don’t Blur the Message on Cancer Screening

I hope this week’s head­lines and edi­to­rials don’t add to the blur­riness of the public’s per­ception of cancer screening – that people might begin to think it’s a bad thing all around. The details matter…

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A Closer Look at the Details on Mammography, in Between the Lines

A seem­ingly slight adjustment in a sta­tistic, for teaching pur­poses, can sig­nif­i­cantly change a test’s cal­cu­lated value.…

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What Does it Mean if Primary Care Doctors Get the Answers Wrong About Screening Stats?

The new findings have no bearing on whether or not cancer screening is cost-​​effective or life-​​saving. What the study does suggest is that med school math require­ments should be upped and rig­orous, counter to the trend

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Considering 2 New Reports on Colon Cancer Screening

pathology image, H&E stain, colonic adenoma (Wiki Commons, attributed to "Nephron")

My take is that periodic colonoscopy has the potential to halve the number of deaths from colon cancer in the general population…As to how colonoscopy relates to fecal blood testing as a screening method at the pop­u­lation level, and the optimal start and fre­quency of either test, those remain uncertain.

See more New Studies on Colon Cancer Screening by Colonoscopy and Fecal Blood Testing

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Cervical Cancer Screening Update: on Pap Smears, Liquid-based Cytology and HPV

high-grade cervical cell dysplasia (Dr. Ed Uthman, Wikimedia Commons)

The latest issue of the Annals of Internal Med­icine con­tains 2 note­worthy papers on cer­vical cancer screening. The first, a sys­tematic review of studies com­mis­sioned by the USPSTF, looked at 3 methods for eval­u­ating abnor­mal­ities in women over 30 years:

high-​​​​grade cer­vical cell dys­plasia (Dr. E. Uthman, Wiki­media Commons)

1. Con­ven­tional cytology (as in a Pap smear; the cervix is scraped and cells splayed onto a micro­scope slide for examination);

2. Liquid-​​​​based cytology (for LBC, the NHS explains: the sample is taken as for a Pap test, but the tip of the col­lection spatula is inserted into fluid rather than applied to slides. The fluid is sent to the path lab for analysis);

3. Testing for high-​​​​risk HPV (human papil­lo­mavirus). Cur­rently 3 tests have been approved by the FDA in women with atypical cer­vical cells or for cer­vical cancer risk assessment in women over the age of 30: Digene

See more Cer­vical Cancer Screening Update: on Pap Smears, Liquid-​​​​based Cytology and HPV

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3 Differences between Prostate and Breast Cancer Screening

Days ago, the USPSTF issued a new draft for its rec­om­men­da­tions on routine PSA mea­sure­ments in asymp­to­matic men. The panel’s report is pub­lished in the Annals of Internal Med­icine. The main findings are two: first, the absence of evi­dence that routine PSA testing pro­longs men’s lives, and second, that PSA eval­u­ation may, on balance, cause more harm than good.

Not sur­pris­ingly, there’s been con­sid­erable cov­erage of this by the media, and some con­tro­versy. For decades, many men have had their PSA checked, know­ingly or not, by their physi­cians. The PSA test mea­sures the level of Prostate Spe­cific Antigen, a protein pro­duced and some­times secreted by prostate cells, normal, inflamed or malignant, into the bloodstream.

As an oncol­ogist, I don’t find the panel’s rec­om­men­da­tions sur­prising. There’s never been strong data to support the hypothesis that routine PSA testing reduces mor­tality for men in any age group. Prostate cancer is often indolent,

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A Call for Clarity in Cancer Screening Discussions

Today’s cancer news is about screening for prostate cancer. The U.S. Pre­ventive Ser­vices Task Force will advise that men should not be screened by a PSA (prostate spe­cific antigen) blood test. The new rec­om­men­da­tions will apply to asymp­to­matic men in all age groups.

I happen to agree with the task force’s position on this, but the point I’d like to make is obvious but too-​​​​often missed by the press and others who con­sider cancer screening:

Prostate cancer is not the same as breast cancer. Rather, each is a dis­tinct set of related dis­eases with varied prog­noses and treatment options.

For any screening method, the potential benefit of detecting cancer early depends on the spe­cific tumor type, the accuracy of the test, and the like­lihood that treatment will be effective and confer a net benefit over risks. A key to under­standing the screening debate(s) is not to con­flate data for distinct

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Stepping Back, and Thinking Forward to October

A question central to today’s dis­cussion – which does at least acknowledge the decline in breast cancer mor­tality – is the extent to which mam­mog­raphy is respon­sible for this trend, as opposed to other factors such as increased awareness about cancer, better cancer treat­ments and other variables.

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The New Alzheimer’s Plaque Test (and early breast cancer detection)

Among my hundred ques­tions about this enter­prise — notwith­standing the ethics of per­forming clinical trials in hospice patients, as is related in the Times article – is this: does the dye harm the kidneys? As for how much it costs, that’s not said either. Because Alzheimer’s is a fairly common disease and memory loss an even com­moner con­dition, the potential demand for this mar­ketable diag­nostic method might be great. What are we thinking?

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Another Erroneous Report on Breast Cancer Screening by Mammography

Map of Denmark, CIA World Factbook (Wikimedia Commons)

What the authors tried to do was analyze trends in breast cancer mor­tality in relation to mammography’s avail­ability in dis­tinct regions of Denmark over several decades. Using Poisson regression, a form of sta­tis­tical analysis, they looked for a cor­re­lation and found none. They con­cluded that they couldn’t detect a benefit of screening mam­mo­grams among Danish women who might benefit (see below). Here’s what I think are the two most serious flaws in this obser­va­tional study:

See more Another Erro­neous Report on Breast Cancer Screening by Mammography

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Peter Sings Colonoscopy

Peter Yarrow - Colonoscopy Song

Am I pro– or con– colonoscopy for routine screening, you might wonder. Well, that depends. Am I pro– or con– famous singers and other celebrities extolling the ben­efits of par­ticular medical inter­ven­tions? Well, that depends, too. But I’m sure I prefer “Puff the Magic Dragon.” Also “Leaving on a Jet Plane” fills me with imperfect mem­ories of 6th grade.

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A Visit With My Oncologist

After a while my oncol­ogist stepped out into the waiting area and guided me to the hall by her office. “The cells are low,” she said. “We’ll have to wait another week, that’s all.” I knew she was right. But a week seemed like a lifetime to me then.…

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Proposed Model for Evaluating False Positives in Screening Mammography, Dec 2009, Part 2

First, a def­i­n­ition* — False pos­i­tives happen in screening mam­mog­raphy when the images suggest the presence of a malig­nancy in a woman who doesn’t have cancer in her breast. Here’s my pro­posed model — False pos­i­tives can arise during any of three con­ceptual seg­ments of the testing process…

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A Bit More on False Positives, Dec 2009, Part 1

Why bother, you might ask — wouldn’t it be easier to drop the subject? “Make it go away,” sang Sheryl Crow on her radi­ation ses­sions. I’ll answer as might a physician and board-​​certified oncol­ogist who happens to be a BC sur­vivor in her 40s: we need establish how often false pos­i­tives lead, in current practice, to addi­tional pro­ce­dures and inap­pro­priate treatment…These numbers matter. They’re essential to the claim that the risks of breast cancer screening out­weigh the benefits.

See more A Bit More on False Pos­i­tives, Dec 2009, Part 1

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Legitimate Concerns and Unfortunate Timing on Radiation from C.T. Scanning

The risks of radi­ation from CT scanning will almost cer­tainly add to the current con­fusion and con­cerns about the risks of breast cancer screening. Mam­mog­raphy differs from CT scanning in several important ways: 1. Mam­mo­grams involve much less radi­ation exposure than CT scans. 2. Mam­mog­raphy is well-​​regulated by the Food and Drug Admin­is­tration (FDA) and other agencies. The Mam­mog­raphy Quality Stan­dards Act (MQSA) requires… 3. Women who undergo screening mam­mo­grams can control when and where they get this pro­cedure. Screening mam­mo­grams are elective by nature..

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On Juno and Screening Test Stats

“Well, well” says the con­ve­nience store clerk. “Back for another test?“

“I think the first one was defective. The plus sign looks more like a division symbol, so I remain uncon­vinced,” states Juno the pregnant teenager.

“Third test today, mama-​​bear,” notes the clerk.

…“There it is. The little pink plus sign is so unholy,” Juno responds.

She’s pregnant, clearly, and she knows she is. (see clip from Juno the movie*)

Think of how a sta­tis­tician might con­sider Juno’s predicament…

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Stats in the News!

False pos­i­tives have hit the head­lines. Check the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CNN — they’re every­where. Even the Ladies’ Home Journal skirts the subject.

…Women are ignoring the numbers, choosing reas­surance over hard facts. Some say members of the pro-​​mammogram camp are irra­tional, even addicted…

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Another Take on Mammography

Three key issues have escaped the head­lines: 1. The expert panel carried out a careful analysis using data that are, nec­es­sarily, old; 2. The rec­om­men­da­tions don’t apply to digital mam­mog­raphy; 3. Mam­mo­grams are not all the same. We need to set the bar higher for mammography…

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Getting the Math on Mammograms

But con­sider — if the expert panel’s numbers are off just a bit, by as little as one or two more lives saved per 1904 women screened, the insurers could make a profit! By my cal­cu­lation, if one addi­tional woman at a cost of, say, $1 million, is saved among the screening group, the provider might break even. And if three women in the group are saved by the pro­cedure, the decision gets easier… Now, imagine the tech­nology has advanced, ever so slightly, that another four or five women are saved among the screening lot. How could anyone, even with a profit motive, elect not to screen those 2000 women?

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To Screen is Human

Smack in the midst of October-​​is-​​breast-​​cancer-​​awareness-​​month, the Journal of the American Medical Asso­ci­ation pub­lished a provocative article with a low-​​key title: “Rethinking Screening for Breast Cancer and Prostate Cancer.” The authors examined trends in screening, diag­nosis and deaths from cancer over two decades, applied the­o­retical models to the data and found a seem­ingly dis­ap­pointing result. It turns out that standard cancer screening is imperfect. The subject matters, espe­cially to me. I’m a medical oncol­ogist and a breast cancer sur­vivor, spared seven years ago from a small, infil­trating ductal car­cinoma by one radi­ol­ogist, an expert physician who noted an abnor­mality on my first screening mammogram…

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