A colleague sent me an email about my math. You’re more or less right, he said, but you need to account for the false positives.
I agree with him. (It’s true.)
The problem is, among others, how to present those numbers in the press.
Statistics don’t sell; still, an explanation is due.
In my next full post I’ll consider the meaning of false positives – their significance and costs – in the cancer screening debate.