Uncertainty Rules (on Eyjafjallajokull, volatility and a patient’s prognosis)

As pretty much anyone traveling in Europe this week can tell you, it’s sometimes hard to know what will happen next. Volcanologists – the people most expert in this sort of matter – simply can’t predict what the spitfire at Eyjafjallajokull will do next.

It comes down to this: the volcano’s eruption could get better or it could get worse…

Information Overload

Last week I received an email from a former patient. He has hemochromatosis, an inherited disposition to iron overload. His body is programmed to take in excessive amounts of iron, which then might deposit in the liver, glands, heart and skin. He mentioned “some amazing videos on hematology and hemochromatosis and genetics” he’d discovered on YouTube.

This is the future of medicine, I realized. … Whether physicians want their patients to search the Internet for medical advice is beside the point. We’re there already, whether or not it’s good for us and whether what we find there is true.

On Juno and Screening Test Stats

“Well, well” says the convenience store clerk. “Back for another test?”

“I think the first one was defective. The plus sign looks more like a division symbol, so I remain unconvinced,” states Juno the pregnant teenager.

“Third test today, mama-bear,” notes the clerk.

…”There it is. The little pink plus sign is so unholy,” Juno responds.

She’s pregnant, clearly, and she knows she is.

(see clip from Juno the movie*)

Think of how a statistician might consider Juno’s predicament…

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